oa The Impact of External Shocks on Qatar's GasExport Earnings

Qatar is a high income country ($129,700 GDP per capita), where gas and oil accounts for 92% export earnings of the country. The International market for gas is recently going through a major transformation, with both demand and supply growing from numerous quarters. There is hardly any literature that provides sound empirical and quantitative analysis of such impacts on gas exporting countries. The paper contributes to filling this gap by providing an empirical analysis of how demand, supply, price and related product shock can affect gas export revenue for Qatar using a structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. Not all shocks are alike; demand and price shocks have a strong positive impact on Qatar gas export revenue, and a supply shock results in short lasting weak negative impact. A U.S. shale gas production shock leads to a positive persistent effect on gas export revenue of Qatar.