oa Analysis of energy demand through econometric modeling

Energy is an important driver for the socio-economic development of a country. Only a sufficient amount of quality energy can promote economic development and satisfy energy demand of the people. Therefore, one important aspect of energy planning is to devise policies that can promote a justifiable use of energy consumption. In order to be able to do so, energy planners use various kinds of mathematical models. In this research, we studied electricity consumption in Qatar through econometric models. As residential and industrial activities are the two most demanding electricity consuming activities in Qatar, we have focused our analysis on these two sectors only. The analysis studies the historical growth pattern and fits the consumption pattern through various econometric models. The most significant model is then proposed for use to forecast electricity consumption for a specified planning period into the future. We believe that an understanding of relationship between electricity consumption and various socio-economic variables will help the planners to develop better generation and transmission policies. Our analysis shows that most of the socio-economic variables may not fit the model due to the electricity consumption characteristics in Qatar. However, the chosen econometric models provide insignificant absolute difference with actual electricity consumption. Once the future values of socio-economic variables are made available, reliable forecast can be obtained for use by the decision makers. We present various results obtained from the analysis.